WHAT TO EXPECT FROM THE INDIAN AND GLOBAL MARKETS :
WHAT TO EXPECT FROM THE INDIAN AND GLOBAL MARKETS :
🔹Market will be react to US Job report, FPIs inflow, rupee and crude movement and global market.
🔹Foreign investors pumped over Rs 4,200 crore into Indian equities last week. On Friday, they bought shares worth Rs 671 crore, extending their buying spree that started on Tuesday--a day after the Union Budget.
Investors gave a thumbs up to the government's decision to stick to the 3.5% fiscal deficit target for the next financial year and welcomed the Reserve Bank of India's move to broaden the Tier-I capital norms to include revaluation reserves as core equity.
🔹This week also saw favourable cues from global markets after positive US economic data showed that factory orders had risen and the service sector index showed a continued expansion.
🔹US Federal Reserve meet on March 15-16 still remains a deciding factor for India local equity market. Expectations are that the Fed will not hike rates. Strong data points in the US raises ambiguity over the issue, thereby keeping the sword hanging for Indian equity markets at higher levels.
🔹Investments by FIIs will be the key driver of the market in the truncated week ahead.
🔹Markets will also react to the US payrolls data. The US Labor Department on Friday said non-farm payrolls increased by 242,000 jobs in February.
The budget announcements and government’s stand of sticking to the fiscal consolidation path raised hopes for a rate cut by RBI.
🔹The holiday truncated week (markets will remain closed on March 7 on account of Mahashivratri) will be low on economic announcements, but the traders will be eyeing the budget discussion in the parliament.
The government will announce Index of Industrial Production data for January on Friday.
Index of industrial production data for the month of January to be announced on March 11. The country's industrial output (IIP) contracted for the second consecutive month by 1.3 per cent in December. During April-December, the industrial output has grown 3.1 per cent compared with 2.6 per cent a year ago.
Telecom stocks will be reacting to the Supreme Court case, which is hearing a plea of two cellular operator associations on March 4, challenging Delhi High Court order upholding Telecom Regulatory Authority of India’s decision making it mandatory for them to compensate subscribers for call drops from January 1, 2016. The operators have moved court seeking quashing of TRAI’s regulation contending that it was a “knee-jerk reaction” which penalised them without proving any wrong-doing.
🌍 Global Events :
🔹Monday 7 March
Germany factory orders (January): factory orders are tipped to increase to -0.2% from -0.7%. Market to watch: Germany 30, EUR crosses
Japan GDP (Q4, final): MoM expected -0.4%, prior 0.3%. YoY expected -1.4%, prior 1.3%. Market to watch: Japan 225, yen crosses.
🔹Tuesday 8 March
China trade balance (February): the forecast is for the trade surplus to drop to $45 billion from $63.30. Market to watch: China 300, China A50, AUD crosses, high grade copper, mining companies.
Japan consumer confidence (February): consumer confidence is expected to increase to 42.7 from 42.5. Market to watch: Japan 225, yen crosses.
German industrial production (January): the consensus is for a 0.2% decline, and that compares with a 1.2% drop in December. Market to watch: Germany 30, EUR crosses
Eurozone GDP (Q4, second estimate): QoQ expected 0.3%, prior 0.3%. YoY expected 1.5%, prior 1.6%. Market to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses
Australia Westpac confidence index (March): it is tipped to fall from 101.3 to 100.8. Market to watch: AUD crosses
🔹Wednesday 9 March
UK manufacturing production (January) and industrial production (January): manufacturing production: MoM expected 0.2%, prior -0.2%. YoY expected 0.6%, prior -1.7%. industrial production: MoM expected 0.2%, prior -1.1%, YoY expected -0.3%, prior -0.4%. Market to watch: GBP crosses, FTSE 100
UK NIESR GDP estimate (three months, February): prior 0.4%. Market to watch: GBP crosses, FTSE 100
Bank of Canad
a interest rate decision and statement. rates are tipped to remain at 0.5%. Market to watch: CAD crosses
US oil inventories: stockpiles are tipped to fall to 0.8 million barrels from 10.4 million barrels. Market to watch: US light crude.
Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision and statement. rates are anticipated to remain at 2.5%. Market to watch: NZD crosses
🔹Thursday 10 March
China CPI (February) and PPI (February): CPI is tipped to rise from 0.5% to 0.6% on a MoM basis and increase to 1.9% from 1.8% on a YoY basis. PPI is forecast to increase from -5.3% to -4.9% on a YoY basis. Market to watch: China 300, China A50, AUD crosses, high grade copper, mining companies.
ECB interest rate decision: the forecast is for the base rate to remain at 0.05% and the deposit facility rate to be cut from -0.3% to -0.4%. The stimulus package is expected to be increased from €60 billion per month to €70 billion per month. Press conference follows at 1.30pm. global indices, EUR crosses
US jobless claims: jobless claims is anticipated to fall by 2,000 to 276,000. Market to watch: US indices, USD crosses
🔹Friday 11 March
German CPI (February, final): MoM expected -0.8%, prior 0.4%, YoY expected 0.0%, prior 0.5%. Market to watch: Germany 30, EUR crosses
UK trade balance (January): the trade deficit is expected to expand to £2.8 billion from £2.7 billion. Market to watch: GBP crosses, FTSE 100
Canada employment change (February) and unemployment rate (February): the employment change is tipped to rise by 11,700 and that compares with a decline of 5,700 in January. Unemployment is anticipated to remain at 7.2%. Market to watch: CAD crosses
🔹Saturday 12 March
China industrial production (January – February) and retail sales (January – February): industrial production is tipped to fall to 5.6% from 5.9%. Retail sales are anticipated to fall from 11.1% to 10.8%. Market to watch: China 300, China A50, AUD crosses, high grade copper, mining companies.
🔹Tuesday 8 March
BoE governor Mark Carney and deputy governor Jon Cunliffe are speaking.
🔹Thursday 10 March
Eurpean Central Bank press conferenc
🔹Market will be react to US Job report, FPIs inflow, rupee and crude movement and global market.
🔹Foreign investors pumped over Rs 4,200 crore into Indian equities last week. On Friday, they bought shares worth Rs 671 crore, extending their buying spree that started on Tuesday--a day after the Union Budget.
Investors gave a thumbs up to the government's decision to stick to the 3.5% fiscal deficit target for the next financial year and welcomed the Reserve Bank of India's move to broaden the Tier-I capital norms to include revaluation reserves as core equity.
🔹This week also saw favourable cues from global markets after positive US economic data showed that factory orders had risen and the service sector index showed a continued expansion.
🔹US Federal Reserve meet on March 15-16 still remains a deciding factor for India local equity market. Expectations are that the Fed will not hike rates. Strong data points in the US raises ambiguity over the issue, thereby keeping the sword hanging for Indian equity markets at higher levels.
🔹Investments by FIIs will be the key driver of the market in the truncated week ahead.
🔹Markets will also react to the US payrolls data. The US Labor Department on Friday said non-farm payrolls increased by 242,000 jobs in February.
The budget announcements and government’s stand of sticking to the fiscal consolidation path raised hopes for a rate cut by RBI.
🔹The holiday truncated week (markets will remain closed on March 7 on account of Mahashivratri) will be low on economic announcements, but the traders will be eyeing the budget discussion in the parliament.
The government will announce Index of Industrial Production data for January on Friday.
Index of industrial production data for the month of January to be announced on March 11. The country's industrial output (IIP) contracted for the second consecutive month by 1.3 per cent in December. During April-December, the industrial output has grown 3.1 per cent compared with 2.6 per cent a year ago.
Telecom stocks will be reacting to the Supreme Court case, which is hearing a plea of two cellular operator associations on March 4, challenging Delhi High Court order upholding Telecom Regulatory Authority of India’s decision making it mandatory for them to compensate subscribers for call drops from January 1, 2016. The operators have moved court seeking quashing of TRAI’s regulation contending that it was a “knee-jerk reaction” which penalised them without proving any wrong-doing.
🌍 Global Events :
🔹Monday 7 March
Germany factory orders (January): factory orders are tipped to increase to -0.2% from -0.7%. Market to watch: Germany 30, EUR crosses
Japan GDP (Q4, final): MoM expected -0.4%, prior 0.3%. YoY expected -1.4%, prior 1.3%. Market to watch: Japan 225, yen crosses.
🔹Tuesday 8 March
China trade balance (February): the forecast is for the trade surplus to drop to $45 billion from $63.30. Market to watch: China 300, China A50, AUD crosses, high grade copper, mining companies.
Japan consumer confidence (February): consumer confidence is expected to increase to 42.7 from 42.5. Market to watch: Japan 225, yen crosses.
German industrial production (January): the consensus is for a 0.2% decline, and that compares with a 1.2% drop in December. Market to watch: Germany 30, EUR crosses
Eurozone GDP (Q4, second estimate): QoQ expected 0.3%, prior 0.3%. YoY expected 1.5%, prior 1.6%. Market to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses
Australia Westpac confidence index (March): it is tipped to fall from 101.3 to 100.8. Market to watch: AUD crosses
🔹Wednesday 9 March
UK manufacturing production (January) and industrial production (January): manufacturing production: MoM expected 0.2%, prior -0.2%. YoY expected 0.6%, prior -1.7%. industrial production: MoM expected 0.2%, prior -1.1%, YoY expected -0.3%, prior -0.4%. Market to watch: GBP crosses, FTSE 100
UK NIESR GDP estimate (three months, February): prior 0.4%. Market to watch: GBP crosses, FTSE 100
Bank of Canad
a interest rate decision and statement. rates are tipped to remain at 0.5%. Market to watch: CAD crosses
US oil inventories: stockpiles are tipped to fall to 0.8 million barrels from 10.4 million barrels. Market to watch: US light crude.
Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision and statement. rates are anticipated to remain at 2.5%. Market to watch: NZD crosses
🔹Thursday 10 March
China CPI (February) and PPI (February): CPI is tipped to rise from 0.5% to 0.6% on a MoM basis and increase to 1.9% from 1.8% on a YoY basis. PPI is forecast to increase from -5.3% to -4.9% on a YoY basis. Market to watch: China 300, China A50, AUD crosses, high grade copper, mining companies.
ECB interest rate decision: the forecast is for the base rate to remain at 0.05% and the deposit facility rate to be cut from -0.3% to -0.4%. The stimulus package is expected to be increased from €60 billion per month to €70 billion per month. Press conference follows at 1.30pm. global indices, EUR crosses
US jobless claims: jobless claims is anticipated to fall by 2,000 to 276,000. Market to watch: US indices, USD crosses
🔹Friday 11 March
German CPI (February, final): MoM expected -0.8%, prior 0.4%, YoY expected 0.0%, prior 0.5%. Market to watch: Germany 30, EUR crosses
UK trade balance (January): the trade deficit is expected to expand to £2.8 billion from £2.7 billion. Market to watch: GBP crosses, FTSE 100
Canada employment change (February) and unemployment rate (February): the employment change is tipped to rise by 11,700 and that compares with a decline of 5,700 in January. Unemployment is anticipated to remain at 7.2%. Market to watch: CAD crosses
🔹Saturday 12 March
China industrial production (January – February) and retail sales (January – February): industrial production is tipped to fall to 5.6% from 5.9%. Retail sales are anticipated to fall from 11.1% to 10.8%. Market to watch: China 300, China A50, AUD crosses, high grade copper, mining companies.
🔹Tuesday 8 March
BoE governor Mark Carney and deputy governor Jon Cunliffe are speaking.
🔹Thursday 10 March
Eurpean Central Bank press conferenc
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